Fewer Full-Ride Scholarships, Less Athletic Merit Aid, and Reduced Recruitment for High School Seniors in the Equivalency Era

As of 2025, the NCAA is undergoing significant changes that could impact how athletic scholarships are awarded and how programs manage their recruiting efforts. These shifts, particularly the move from the head count model to the equivalency model, are creating challenges for high school athletes hoping to secure a spot at the next level. But how exactly does this affect recruiting, and what can high school prospects do to improve their chances?

Traditionally, NCAA Division I programs used the head count model for scholarship distribution, which meant that a set number of full scholarships were available for specific sports, and each athlete received a full ride. However, with the shift to the equivalency model—similar to what NCAA Division II and NAIA schools have long used—this is all changing. Under the equivalency model, programs are given a set scholarship budget, and they must divide that among their athletes as they see fit.

For example, let’s say a basketball team has a scholarship budget of $100,000. Under the old head count model, the coach could award 10 players full scholarships, with each worth $10,000. Under the equivalency model, the same budget could be distributed among 15 or even 20 players. Some might receive full scholarships, others could get partial scholarships, and some might not receive any athletic aid at all.

This change means that fewer full scholarships will be available for high school seniors. With larger rosters and a broader distribution of funds, coaches now have more flexibility, but it comes at the cost of fewer opportunities for incoming freshmen to receive full athletic scholarships.

Another major factor reshaping recruiting is the rise of the NCAA transfer portal. This platform allows current college athletes to enter their names into a database, where coaches can recruit them to new schools. While this offers more opportunities for athletes looking to transfer, it has also had a significant impact on how coaches approach recruiting.

As a former college coach, I can tell you that when given the choice between recruiting a high school senior or a transfer athlete, I would almost always prioritize the transfer. Transfers are typically more experienced, already familiar with the rigors of college life and athletics, and can often contribute to the team right away. In short, they’re ready to play without the learning curve that comes with recruiting freshmen.

This trend isn’t limited to NCAA Division I programs. The effects of the transfer portal extend to Division II, NAIA, and other college athletic associations as well. When transfer athletes flood the market, fewer spots remain available for high school seniors, which means even fewer opportunities for young recruits to be signed.

One aspect of the transfer portal that doesn’t get much attention is the risk that many athletes take when they enter it. When a Division I athlete enters the portal, they are essentially giving up their scholarship at their current school, hoping to land a new spot. Unfortunately, not every athlete who enters the portal finds a new home at the same level. In many cases, athletes who thought they’d be able to transfer to another Division I program end up unsigned and have to move to Division II, NAIA, or even Division III schools.

This trend has significant implications for high school recruits. When a transfer athlete is picked up by a college, that scholarship may come at the expense of a high school senior. A full or partial scholarship that could have gone to a freshman might instead be used to secure a transfer commitment. As a result, high school seniors find themselves competing for a smaller pool of available spots. For every success story of a transfer athlete landing at a new school, there are likely many more who remain unsigned and are forced to look outside Division I.

Beyond Division I, many colleges and universities, especially at the Division II and NAIA levels—are increasingly expanding their rosters, and this trend has financial reasons behind it. Smaller schools are often relying on athletics to boost enrollment and net tuition revenue, meaning they have a strong incentive to build larger rosters. The larger the roster, the more students there are paying tuition, even if they’re not receiving full scholarships.

Take the example of a basketball team: While only five players can play at a time, some smaller colleges now field teams of 15 or 20 players, including junior varsity squads. This has become more common in both NAIA and NCAA Division III schools, where rosters are intentionally sized to support enrollment and financial viability.

For high school seniors, this trend means even more competition for a shrinking pool of athletic scholarships. With many programs prioritizing roster size and financial sustainability over individual talent, fewer scholarships are available to incoming freshmen.

Given these changes, it’s more important than ever for high school athletes to start the recruiting process as early as possible. With fewer scholarships available and increased competition, it’s essential to get in front of college coaches and make connections. The earlier you begin the recruiting process, the better your chances of standing out.

Moreover, it’s crucial to focus on what you can control—your academic performance, your character, your work ethic, and your coachability. These qualities are increasingly important as the recruiting landscape becomes more competitive. Coaches want athletes who are not only talented but also well-rounded and easy to work with.

The NCAA’s shift to the equivalency model, combined with the growing prominence of the transfer portal and the trend toward larger rosters, is fundamentally changing how college programs recruit and distribute scholarships. While this makes the road to college athletics more challenging for high school seniors, it’s not impossible. Athletes who take proactive steps to build relationships with coaches, excel in the classroom, and show they are well-prepared for college athletics will continue to find opportunities at the next level.

By understanding these shifts and being strategic about the recruiting process, high school athletes can still position themselves for success in an increasingly competitive and complex recruiting environment.

To learn more about PrepSearch and how I’ve helped over 1,700 students attend college through sports since 2007, please explore the rest of my website. For more information about my seminars for high schools and clubs, or to inquire about my recruiting advisory services, feel free to complete the contact form on my website at www.prepsearch.net.

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